N.F.L. Week 16 Predictions: Our Picks for Each Game

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) at Jets (7-7), 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime Video
Line: Jets -1 | Total: 37.5

The Jags are within a game of the Titans for the A.F.C. South. If they find a win against the Jets and the Texans, they will host Tennessee in the final week of the regular season in what could be a win-and-you’re-in showdown. After starting the season 3-7, Jacksonville has gone 4-2 in their past six games, thanks largely to the stellar play of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is finally playing like a No. 1 overall draft pick.

The Jets are moving in the opposite direction. They went 5-2 in their first seven games and 2-5 in their past seven. Coach Robert Saleh refused to commit to Zach Wilson as the starting quarterback this week when first asked about it, but he announced Tuesday that Mike White was out and Wilson would get the start. Hardly a vote of confidence. The forecast is calling for moderate to heavy rain Thursday night. The Jets could benefit from a messy, chaotic game. Otherwise, the Jags should have the edge. Pick: Jaguars +1

Buffalo Bills (11-3) at Chicago Bears (3-11), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Bills -8.5 | Total: 40.5

The Bears put the Eagles to the test last week. Quarterback Justin Fields put up 95 rushing yards, and the defense intercepted Jalen Hurts twice and prevented him from throwing a touchdown for the first time since Week 5. They easily covered the 8.5-point spread against Philadelphia’s weak rushing defense. The offensive line struggled to protect Fields, however, allowing him to be sacked six times. This week, Chicago faces the Bills, who have the third-best rushing defense in the league. It’s going to be 3 degrees with 20 m.p.h. winds on Saturday, but the Bills are no strangers to the cold. The Bears would be wise to let Fields take it easy and plan for the future. Pick: Bills -8.5

New Orleans Saints (5-9) at Cleveland Browns (6-8), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Browns -3 | Total: 31.5

This is the lowest total of the week at 31.5 points. Last week, Deshaun Watson threw only four passes of more than 10 yards in the Browns’ 13-3 win over Baltimore. This week, running back Nick Chubb is questionable. Without him in the lineup, and with Cade York kicking field goals in 40 m.p.h. winds, it’s hard to see how the Browns score many points. In a game with such a low total, the value of each point in the spread is magnified for the underdog. The Saints are still very much in the playoff hunt and could win outright. Pick: Saints +3

Houston Texans (1-12-1) at Tennessee Titans (7-7), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Titans -5 | Total: 37

The Titans have not looked good over the past six weeks, and they are in danger of losing their division to the surging Jaguars. Fortunately, they get the last-place Texans this week to try to get a much-needed victory. The market may overreact to the Texans’ taking Kansas City to overtime last week, but that game was deceiving. Despite the close score, the Texans were massively outplayed in nearly every category offensively. The Texans benefited from Kansas City’s drawing 10 penalties for 102 yards, and they easily covered the 14-point spread. This week, they have fewer points to help them out so they’ll need the referees even more. Pick: Titans -5

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